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Sunday, November 21, 2010

Supernova VIP - 3rd week

Published by Unknown u Sunday, November 21, 2010

This third week was really filled with frustrating situations in which opponents were hitting the 1-2 outers at the river whenever it was possible. Besides of that, I tried to reduce the number of tournaments that I was behind (42 tournaments less than planned), so I increased the number of tournaments I play simultaneously to 6. That way I reduced the number to 18 which I should annulate during the next week.

Earnings ($160.50) are still above the expected ($145.20), so the bankroll ($333.50) is a little bit larger than expected ($331). Comparing to the previous two weeks ROI has significantly decreased to 13.4% and it is still above planned 12%, but EV ROI 10.3% shows further decreasing tendency. I hope that this won't happen because I see my play dominant and correct, and too many bad beats significantly influence the ROI. These bad beats influenced the ITM drop to 44.1% and reduced the tournament duration to 55.4 minutes. I still play well bubble situations, correctly solved 98 of 132 cases, but bad beats reduced success to 74.2%, out of 75% expected. Play in the ITM zone is still below expected, 62.2% against 2 players out of 66.7% expected, and 41% in heads up out of 50% expected. Because of that, I started some calculations of decisions in some game phases which I will start using in few weeks and publish results here.

Some of you asked me to publish my HEM HUD that I use during my play, and it can be downloaded here. Stats have the following meaning:1. row = M coeficient, Player name
2. row = VPIP, PFR, AF, Flop AF, Turn AF

3. row = Steal, SB fold vs steal, BB fold vs steal

4. row = Flop CB, Fold vs flop CB, Fold vs turn CB, hands number

Important is that all stats are significantly filtered based upon players at the table:

with 2 players at the table, only hands played in heads up are used
with 3 players at the table, hands with 3-4 players at the table are used
with 4 players at the table, hands with 4-5 players at the table are used
with 5 players at the table, hands with 5-6 players at the table are used
with 6 players at the table, hands with 6-7 players at the table are used
with 7 or more players at the table, hands with 7 or more players at the table are used

and based upon the stack size in BB:

for the stack 1-7 xBB
for thestack 8-14 xBB
for thestack 15-30 xBB
for thestack 30-50 xBB
for thestack 51+ xBB

This way stats are poor for new players, but significant for regular players I played with, so I make correct decisions easier by using the HUD data.

Here are some interesting hands from the past week:

Please, post your comments here.